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Subject: Comparing Indian Pakistan War Scenario
swordblow_19    10/10/2005 7:07:25 AM
Hi Guys, I am from India and have always been curious as to how the militaries of both countries would find themselves in case of a full blown war. Well here's my assesment. Lets start first with India. India is a far stronger country both militarliy and economically. On paper in can easliy beat the Pakistani army. Indian infantry compared to a Pakistani are slightly better, Indian tanks are far better. The place where India is at a disadvantage is in fighter planes and missile tecnology (although u can argue that technology for India is homegrown but that is no excuse). The infantry comparisoms are for the average infantry man. There are some units in Pakistan far superior to Indian ones and vice versa. Tank divisions on the whole the Indians have a better edge. Morale I would say is almost equal but minutely more for the Paki side as the army of late has stressed more on Religion and religion as history has shown is a powerful morale booster. The army of India is larger than the Pakistani one but Pakistan is more heavily militarized. This is because of the military personnel and population ratio of respective countries. Experince is high for both India and Pak as both have been in a state of war for more than 50 years. Incase of a war the initial thrust would be Indias. But then it would be bogged down fighting the Pakis in its cities and towns. Leadership will play a critical role in any war and here Pakistan has a abundance of military leaders if only there care to leave their seats as political masters. India can easily thrust into Pakistan and capture key cities. Pakistan can also move in but in lesser places or in gaps left. Pakistan has more friends in the world than India. It has a very dangerous wild card in its hand, the support of the "Islamic Ummah". That I think is the critical factor which will turn the tide against Indian army invasion as it can lead to lakhs of voluteers joining the Paki side. The Pakistani military is moulded out of the fact that any army would have high causulties and loss of machinery in case of an invasion and this would prompt any invading force to think twice before embarking on a mission. Although both countries would not be able to hold parts of the others territory it would lead to a bloody border wars for many years. One good thing abt both countries is that they have never targetted the civilian population centres of the other which is almost unheard of in modern warfare. Neither can India defeat the Pakis descively nor can the Pakis capture or push the Indian forces inside India. It would at the end reach a stalemate where at the end people will die. Thank U. Comments welcome.
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ATHEIST    RE:Comparing Indian Pakistan War Scenario   10/12/2005 1:42:12 AM
You analysis was partly right. In the case of air forces pakistan has a slight edge and the Indian Air Force is the achille's heel. On ground troops, Indians have the advantage with numbers and past history would tell you that Pakistan are good at mountainous fighting (because of their obsession with Kashmir) but fare poorly on the vast plains of Punjab or in the deserts of Rajasthan. The Indian armour should be able to beat the Pakistani counterparts. So it seems like a deadlock, but there is one major piece of the jigsaw missing. The NAVY. Pakistan has a very small outdated naval fleet while the Indian Navy is the most modern of all its military wings with a huge coverage that can literally choke pakistani ports. with little economic and fuel supplies, it would be near impossible for Pakistan to CONTINUE fighting. remember, in the subcontinent it is not going to be a year long war, most likely a swift war that'll end in a month. India has the ecnomoic might and supplies to last more than pakistan. that should eventually tip the scales in India's way because without bullets and ammunition the guns are useless. Of course Pakistan would use the nukes on bombay which should be good for India. Because then India would raze Pakistan to the ground or would impose crippling sanctions that would divide pakistan like germany was divided into 2 after world war 2. either way India would emerge as the victorious one unless someone bumbled and goofed along the way.
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Genesis_ashok    RE:Comparing Indian Pakistan War Scenario   10/12/2005 2:07:30 AM
Analysis partly right.But I should add that India's mountain fighting has improved far better in the last 2 decades. kargil war is ample proof of that.Also the role of the superior Indian Navy may not be the key factor. AirForce , Missile technology and Intelligence are the decesive key in any modern (Indo-Pak) war. India is rapidly modernising its airforce and missile tech...but still its suppliers are dubious. Its good that India is leaning on Isreal for miliraty supplies now a days. Isreal is a far more reliable country than Russia. Also a big question is..On a full scale war...what will happen if the Oil rich Islamic countries deny India fuel in support of Pak.? But one fact cannot be denied. India can easily bounce back after the war becoz of its inherently strong economy and strength in numbers. Whereas any future war will cripple Pakistan forever.
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coolboyjay    RE:Comparing Indian Pakistan War Scenario   10/12/2005 4:17:53 AM
how does anyone in their right mind say pakistani air force is better than the indian one?? Facts n figures please... This analysis is absolute crap..
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ATHEIST    RE:Comparing Indian Pakistan War Scenario   10/12/2005 6:36:46 AM
Coolboy there is some qualitative superiority of the PAF over Indians. in army it's the otherway round and in navy india's navy whoops pak's asses. genesis ashok missed the point that even if saudi arabia or any islamic/non islamic nation does offer oil to pakistan it still has to come via the seas. that's where navy plays its role by cutting off the supply routes NOT the supplying countries. if u play the game properly and cut off their supply routes, then you just have to choke them off before going for the jugular. also remember the farkhor air base that's pointed at pakistan. it's something few know about and could come in handy.
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swordblow_19    RE:Comparing Indian Pakistan War Scenario   10/12/2005 7:21:51 AM
One point which I regretfully missed is the Indian Navy. Pakistan has just one sea port 'Karachi'.You block that out, you have a death grip. But it is not so simple. China is now building a huge state of art sea port in Western Pakistan. Pakistan has the third fastest growing economy is Asia only China and Singapore have better ( Paksitan's key ally USA is supplying with them with every high tech weapon they have. We are being supplied with rotten leftovers from Europe and Russia. I would hesitate to take the help of Israel for three reasons. 1. We risk incurring the wrath of our friends in the oil rich Arab world. 2. We risk fearing a backlash with our own Muslim population 3. And above all we have always been supportive of the palestinian cause as we consider it a just cause (which it actually is). Now what we have to do is flex some muscle in the international community. Unfortunately our politicians and leaders acroos the political divide donot seem to have the balls to do so. Instead we vote against our friend 'Iran' and donot support Saddam Hussain who had always supported us on the issue of Kashmir. India right now has a serious lack of 'real' friends, apart from Russai (which is slowly tearing itself to shreds). And I have also noticed a disturbing trend in Indians and other fellow posters in different fourums. We Indians seem to have this very worrisome and complacent attitude of late. We are under-estimating the enemy. Instead of worrying about the weakness of our rivals, I would rather study their strenghts and learn how to counter them. We seem to have a attitude which suggest we beaten them in everywar. We can beat them again. Wrong. The only war we have won was the 1971 war. The rest were all deadlocks. Although in every war we have had the upper hand but our politicians let us down after the initial success. But you cant blame them also. They would have had other external pressures and other worries. You would have noticed that I in my post have said that we cant beat Pakistan decisivly......but we can beat them. No doubt. But in the end War will only bring more chaos and more suffering to all the people. The only way this scenario for war can be permanently erased is by doing business. Open the borders and interwine the economies then the chances of war are eradicated. THANK U. Peace to all.
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ATHEIST    RE:Comparing Indian Pakistan War Scenario   10/12/2005 7:37:56 AM
Swordblow some points are valid like don't underestimate the enemy. But a few facts to be corrected I don't think all the other wars (71 excluded) ended in deadlocks. the 47 ended in india's favour since we got the fertile part of the kashmir and a greater portion. the 1999 war was a victory not a deadlock, if it were a deadlock then kargil would be in pakistan's map. u could say kargil was a polito-diplomatic victory aided by a strong military focus thrust into one area. yes, pak navy ports are getting beefed up, but indian navy even according to neutrals is developing into a blue water navy. and all that stands between pakistan's navy is that one port and chinese themseleves are not the best in technology so there is little to fear the navy unless one is paranoid. I would be worried about the ageing fighters and the indian air force with some chinks also in the land forces (read tanks). actually iraq is the fastest growing economy in the world in sheer PPP terms because their base is very small, so is the case with pakistan. A few years from now you would notice that pak's economy would have a) run out of steam for growth or b) their own rulers somehow bumble with it and lose it like they did in the past. I'm for peace but our neighours won't allow the kashmir to simmer for long... they want it burning and roasted i'm afraid. especially if one of these general fools from there want a kashmiri tandoor
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Root Locus    RE:Comparing Indian Pakistan War Scenario   10/12/2005 1:13:46 PM
*/Coolboy there is some qualitative superiority of the PAF over Indians./* ath Could u please elaborate? RL
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ATHEIST    RE:Comparing Indian Pakistan War Scenario   10/13/2005 12:09:21 AM
actually the "qualitative supriority" is just a .5 tilt towards pakistan, if we should close our eyes to the fact that we have ageing planes, then god save us. in army we have the strength and quality to do better than them. some of this is also based on history where PAF on occasions did match and even fared better than IAF (71 was an exception) while indian army seemed the better lot of the two. NAVy as everyone concurrs india has a huge lead. also note to nileraider, there is still no oil pipeline between india & iran so it's still far off and 2007 is too soon for it to be built. but i agree with the blockade thing where india can block pakistan. because the other 2 armed wings will end in stalemate or a slight indian advantage, the choking from the indian navy of pakistan supply routes will be the vital factor. Of course all the war games might change on ground. I was reading a book "The crisis game Simulating international conflict" which was played by the americans before the 65 war and at the end of the game pakistan won it (they had some qualitative superiority at that time since india was undergoing massive changes). History will show you that nearly the opposite happned with india having the better part of the honorable draw.
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coolboyjay    RE:Comparing Indian Pakistan War Scenario   10/13/2005 12:52:05 AM
Yeah qualitative edge .. my a$$.. The pakistani Mirage III's and IV's are so much more advanced than the Indian M2K's. Wow man!! Or are u referring to that excuse of a fighter plane JF-17?? Or the ageing F-16 A/B's ?? Tell me what qualitative edge are u talking about??
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trustedsourceofinfo    RE:Comparing Indian Pakistan War Scenario   10/13/2005 2:05:17 AM
LOl...where do you get your facts from Atheist and sword_blow. The things u've been writing is such a load of crap that it doesnt even warrant any reply.Can any of you'll please do a qualitative comparative analysis before drawing to those conclusions of yours... AND Swordblow: Let me quote you... ""1. We risk incurring the wrath of our friends in the oil rich Arab world. 2. We risk fearing a backlash with our own Muslim population 3. And above all we have always been supportive of the palestinian cause as we consider it a just cause (which it actually is)." --->The flks we can truly rely on is the Israelis.If there's anybody we CANT trust-its these Muslims nations.Israel and India have the same problem with hostile Islamic neighbours. Russia has been a trusted ally and remember we're getting the next generation Sukhoi's from the Russians.Need I say any more! And what Palestinian CAUSE are you talking abt?Putting guns in the hands of 3 yr old kids and inspring teenagers to blow themselves up in the name of Allah! Why dont you enlighten us....
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