India-Pakistan: We Are Serious This Time, Really We Are


October 21, 2011:  American leaders are dismayed as they keep encountering Pakistani politicians and military officials who believe all their troubles are caused by Indian, American and Israeli conspiracies. Pakistan is full of this stuff, and those who believe it are not eager to consider alternatives. While the Pakistani fears are largely based on fiction, the growing number of Indians killed by Pakistani sponsored (and based) terrorism is very real. There are Pakistanis who understand the reality of all this and some of them are diplomats. But as long as most Pakistani leaders, and most of the Pakistani media, embrace the conspiracy theories, real peace is not likely. But at least the diplomats from each nation can discuss possibilities.

The U.S. constantly points to the continuing presence of Islamic terror groups in Pakistani sanctuaries. That is difficult for the Pakistanis to deny. The major danger here is that if a big attack is made in the United States, and tracked back to a Pakistani sanctuary, this could trigger a public call for war with Pakistan. Even many senior Pakistanis recognize this danger and try to control the terrorists they host. This precarious situation won't go away as long as the terrorist sanctuaries (mainly North Waziristan and Quetta) are openly protected by Pakistani leaders. But without admitting anything to the Americans, Pakistan has apparently ordered some Haqqani personnel and bases out of North Waziristan. This might just be Haqqani fleeing an area that American intelligence knew too well, and that might have been under the advice of Pakistani intelligence. The movement of Haqqani personnel, to Afghanistan or elsewhere in the tribal territories, is making life difficult for the many foreign terrorists who find sanctuary (and work) with Haqqani. The desire to impose greater security on the new Haqqani bases means foreign recruits will take a lot longer to be led in.

In Indian Kashmir, the strongest Islamic terror group, Hizbul Mujahideen (HM), is fading away as more of its leaders are killed or captured each month, and few replacements show up. HM is unique in that it came to be dominated by Indian Kashmiris and resisted control by Pakistan. While still receiving personnel and other aid from Pakistan, HM was more sensitive to Kashmiri needs and desires, not what Pakistani foreign policy demanded. As a result, when the Kashmiri population turned against Islamic terrorism in the last decade, HM began to decline. Despite that, HM maintained its position as the major Islamic terror group in Kashmir because increased Indian success at border security hurt the groups more dependent on personnel and aid from Pakistan.

In northwest Pakistan, 30 Pakistani Taliban crossed over from Afghanistan and attacked the compound of a pro-government tribal leader. Three people were killed, but not the tribal leader.

Elsewhere in the area, near the Khyber Pass, troops found and attacked an Islamic terrorist camp, leaving three soldiers and 34 terrorists dead.

The Indian Navy is increasing its current personnel strength of 58,000 by 15 percent over the next five years, as many more new ships and aircraft enter service.

October 20, 2011: The U.S. sent its Secretary of State to Pakistan to openly tell the government there that Pakistan would "pay a big price" if it continued to provide sanctuary for Islamic terrorists. Pakistan continues to deny that it is doing that sort of thing.

October 19, 2011:  The U.S. State Department warned Americans to be careful if travelling to India over the next week or so, because of the increased possibility of Islamic terror attacks there.

October 17, 2011: In Pakistan's tribal territories, an attack on a terrorist hideout left nine soldiers and 13 terrorists dead.

In eastern India (Jharkhand) police captured a Maoist camp, along with large quantities of weapons and equipment.

October 15, 2011:  U.S. UAVs struck again in South Waziristan, Pakistan, the fourth such attack in the last three days. This attack hit a Pakistani Taliban leader who was regarded as pro-government. The Pakistanis don't like this, but fear the American reaction if they try to stop the UAV attacks against Islamic terrorists. The number of these attacks had declined this year (to 53, from 117 last year.) This year, the attacks were about the same as 2009. One reason for the decline is that some 90 percent of last year's attacks were in North Waziristan, against the Haqqani Network and similar terror groups active in Afghanistan. The best targets in North Waziristan were killed and the survivors became much more careful about their security. This was helped by Pakistani intelligence, which backs the terrorists and made it harder for the Americans to find targets in North Waziristan. So the Americans are moving outside of North Waziristan, hitting whatever terrorists they can, even ones the Pakistanis consider "friendly." The U.S. has also become more aggressive with its intelligence collection on the ground in Pakistan. This is expensive, and dangerous for the Pakistanis to sign up to help the Americans. Many do it for the money, but many are also fed up with all the Pakistani support for Islamic terrorists, and want to work with someone who will do something about it. This is expected to result in more attacks against Pakistani pet terrorists in North Waziristan.

October 14, 2011: In Pakistan, police on the outskirts of the capital seized two vehicles full of weapons. These were apparently to be used for a major terrorist attack.

October 13, 2011: In Pakistan's tribal territories (Waziristan) two American UAV attacks killed ten Islamic terrorists, including the Haqqani Network logistics chief.


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